Thursday, January 29, 2009

State of the Brewers


It seems like the Brewers are finished with their offseason signings -- at least until spring training. This is what we got.

1st Base - Prince Fielder

2nd Base - Ricky Weeks*

3rd Base - Bill Hall/ Mike Lamb


Shortstop - JJ Hardy

Catcher - Jason Kendall

Left Field - Ryan Braun

Center Field - Mike Cameron

Right Field - Corey Hart*


*assuming they'll be signed soon.


Our rotation is looking like

Yovani Gallardo

Manny Parra

Dave Bush

Jeff $uppan

Seth McClung


Key Bullpen players

Trevor Hoffman, random crap.


Nothing pisses me off more than reading various brewer fans on blogs who say, "Spend some money Attanasio." I'm sure Mark A. loves hearing Chuck from Sheboygan's financial advice. Fact of the matter is before Mark Attanasio, the brewers had a payroll of 27 Million. So shut up Chuck. Appreciate what we got.

Most fans seem to agree that we need one more quality starting pitcher to sure up this team. Although I do agree, I'm going to argue otherwise. Who's to say Yovani Gallardo isn't a number one starter? He has been great everytime I've seen him throw. Last year he had the freak LEG injury, by no means injury prone... Came back in the playoffs and proved why we shouldn't have started $uppan. Remember $uppan? He'll be back again for another 10 mil. What were we thinking when we signed this guy?..... Exactly what we're thinking now -- We need to sign some random over priced veteran 3rd starter to sure up our rotation. Look how that worked out. God, we have this guy for 4 years. That is a mistake I don't want to repeat. Manny Parra. Last year everyone said he was young. You can't over pitch him or his arm will get tired. Yost over pitched him. His arm got tired and he sucked at the end of the year. He's got a full major league season under his belt and that usually brings more stamina for the following year. Look for him to be just fine. Dave Bush? Eh he's Dave Bush, sometimes he's good, sometimes he sucks. $uppan... we've already delt with that waste of space. McClung? I guess. I actually really liked this guy out of the bullpen at the end of the year. He was pitching with some anger. Fun to watch. A 5 starter just isn't the right role for him but I guess it's what we got. We also have a very reliable closer. The most experienced closer to ever play the game. I think Torres was an absolute fluke last year and I thank god we don't have to continue on with that experiment. If we're ahead in the 9th, 95% of the time we should get the win. That will be comforting.


Now there's the lineup. Nothing has changed at all. This is the lineup I'd like to see on opening day.

Hart

Cameron

Braun

Fielder

Weeks

Hall

Hardy

Kendall

Gallardo


Now everyone is going to say I'm retarded but I'll explain. We need someone to act like a lead off hitter. It is not Weeks. He has showed us that for 2 years yet we never learned. So I say we toss in Hart. Hopefully his end of the year collapse is behind him and he can start making some contact. When he gets on base he creates havoc for the opposing pitchers. He's probably one of the best baserunners I've ever watched. Then we follow it up with Cameron. Yes he's a high strike out guy but he's patient. This should allow Hart time to do what he does best. He'll also get some good pitches to look at with Braun and Prince coming in behind him. He also runs the bases with the best of them. If he strikes out, there's still a good chance he leaves the plate with a man on second, one out, braun and prince to follow. Having Braun bat 3rd and Prince bat 4th is a no brainer that doesn't need to be explained. Then I put Weeks 5th. I want to totally change this guy's role in the lineup. I think weeks should be considered a double/power guy. Lets let him go out there swinging. None of this bunt the ball and get on base crap. That's not his style. Don't go for the single Weeks, go long. Bill Hall batting 6th. He got Lasik eye surgery. Look what happened when Rick Vaughn when they fixed his vision. MVP candidate for sure. JJ Hardy. I forget, does he bat really well at the bottom of the order or at the top? I think it's the bottom. Good spot for a .250 power hitter. Kendall is batting 8th, where else you gonna put him? Then there's the pitcher spot.


Finally, we have to take into account the absense of the Yost effect. Lets see what the new management can do with these guys. Think about it... a well managed team. Total relief. That's the big X factor this year. That and the possible impact of some young players -- Iraberren, Escobar, and Gamel. I guess Gwynn Jr too?


I'd love to hear people's opinions on this one. Why am I wrong? With that said, GO BREWERS!

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hart is not a leadoff hitter. Weeks is the best option for that spot that we have. Week is a career 352 OBP (342 last year) player compared to Hart who is a career 323 OBP (300 last year) player. OBP is the most important measure of a leadoff hitter not his AVG.

Dan in Milwaukee said...

With that said I believe different spots in the lineup require a different approach. With Hart's 323 OBP you have to consider the fact that he's not at the plate just trying to get on base. He's trying to drive the ball and score some runs. Lead off hitters OBP is inflated because they should be doing everything they can just to get to first base. They also aren't hitting into many outs on the bases. Also a 352 OBP isn't something to be that proud of with your leadoff hitter.
You can't just say oh Hart isn't a lead off hitter, so now you have to go with weeks. By that same argument I can just say, Weeks is not a leadoff hitter, it has to be Hart. Your argument sucked. You're lucky you didn't post your name to subject yourself to further ridicule. Next?

Anonymous said...

To your point about a leadoff hitters approach should be to drive the ball and score runs and not worry about getting on base is completely assinine. The sole purpose of a 1/2 hitter in the lineup is to get on base for the 3/4 hitters to drive in.
In 2008, the average leadoff hitter had a .342 OBP. (I can't remember if that's just NL or the whole MLB) Rickie Weeks was an average leadoff hitter last year in terms of getting on base. He, however, was near the top in many of the scoring rate stats. In 2007 and 2006 he was an above average leadoff hitter with OBP's at 374 (07) and 363 (06). Both of those were above average for a leadoff hitter. Hart in 07 got on at a 353 clip (career best), but had to bat near 300 to accomplish it because he only walked 33 times in 140 games. Weeks on the other hand in 07 walked 78 times in 118 games while batting in the 230s.
I'm going to assume that you think Brian Roberts and Ichiro are great leadoff hitters. Roberts has had an OBP over 350 3 times in his career. If you look at Roberts first 3-4 years compared to Weeks, you'll see that Weeks has done a better job getting on base in every year. There's no reason to think he can't reach 370-380 range like Roberts as he enters his prime. Ichiro has a high OBP because he averages 226 hits per season with very few walks. As soon as Ichiro loses a step, you'll see him become a worthless hitter much like Juan Pierre. Weeks has yet to play 140+ games in a season, but he still walks more than Ichiro does. It's a moot point because Ichiro has yet to lose that step, but when he does you'll see another Juan Pierre.
If/when Weeks can get his average to 260-270 range, you'll see an elite leadoff hitter instead of an average/above average one.

Anonymous said...

I already posted a reply tonight that was civil, but I must have missed the last line of your comment because now I realize you're an idiot. My argument sucked?!?! I provided a valid point as to why Weeks is a better leadoff hitter than Hart. Part of the reason people believe Weeks struggles with his AVG is because the organization wants him to take pitches and work the pitcher instead of being a free swinger. Leadoff hitters OBP is inflated because they're trying to get to first base?!?! I'm sorry to say this, but that argument is complete bullshit. I can prove this with Fielder carrying the highest OBP on the team the last two years. His philosophy is to drive runners in, but he doesn't go up there hacking away every at bat like Hart does. Don't get me wrong Fielder has some holes in his game that he needs to fix, mainly taking the pitch away to opposite field instead of trying to pull it. This is why the shift works against Fielder more times than not whereas people don't try to do it against Braun. I'm also not trying to rip on Hart because I like his tools and think the Brewers should try to lock him up long term. He needs to learn to be more patient at the plate and not swing at junk low and away every pitch, though. The best hitters can take what the pitchers give them and take advantage of it. If the pitcher pitches away, you take it to opposite field. If the pitcher gives you a pitch to drive, you drive it. If the pitcher doesn't give you something to hit, you leave it be. This should be done regardless of what position you are in the lineup. This is the big problem with Hall because he refuses to take the ball to opposite field like he did in 06, which is really hurting him. I know this is easier said than done, though, and I don't expect every major leaguer to be able to do it all the time otherwise we'd be watching Pujols, Bonds, and A-Rod every game. Would it be nice to have that type of production from everyone? No question about it, but not everyone will be able to do it. They should, however, take that approach to batting as that is the most successful.

Dan in Milwaukee said...

My point is that I want to see what Weeks can do hitting 5th in the lineup -- in the position to drive in some runs. This is the only way I can see that happening. I think by forcing Weeks into a leadoff role we're putting him in an unnatural position for and thus tarnishing what could of been an incredible career.
With that said... Do I know you? I'm guessing not because if you knew who I was you'd expect the asshole tone in my responses and not take offense. That's what I do. So I'm assuming you're just one hell of a brewer fan. If so thanks for reading and arguing. I'll keep posting more baseball theories for you to get pissed off at as the season goes on.

Anonymous said...

I'd like to see Weeks further down in the order, too, but without a suitable leadoff hitter to replace him we have to keep him there. Moving him down to see what he can do in a different lineup spot limits RBI opportunities for Braun and Fielder. What follows is a bunch of split stats that I'm going to use to put together the best possible lineup this year for the Brewers.
Rickie Weeks
(Career)
v. LHP .250/.392/.426
v. RHP .243/.338/.399
(2008)
v. LHP .250/.391/.414
v. RHP .227/.319/.391
JJ Hardy
(career)
v. LHP .299/.374/.564
v. RHP .259/.312/.404
(2008)
v. LHP .304/.402/.574
v. RHP .276/.320/.444
Ryan Braun
(career)
v. LHP .351/.412/.702
v. RHP .283/.327/.546
(2008)
v. LHP .287/.341/.532
v. RHP .284/.333/.561
Prince Fielder
(career)
v. LHP .250/.330/.463
v. RHP .292/.387/.565
(2008)
v. LHP .239/.313/.420
v. RHP .295/.401/.554
Mike Cameron
(career)
v. LHP .266/.366/.485
v. RHP .245/.331/.435
(2008)
v. LHP .282/.397/.555
v. RHP .231/.309/.452
Corey Hart
(career)
v. LHP .300/.364/.516
v. RHP .267/.304/.472
(2008)
v. LHP .281/.324/.473
v. RHP .263/.291/.454
Mike Lamb
(career)
v. LHP .253/.320/.393
v. RHP .281/.336/.422
(2008)
v. LHP .067/.097/.167
v. RHP .259/.300/.343
Bill Hall
(career)
v. LHP .278/.355/.493
v. RHP .249/.300/.441
(2008)
v. LHP .306/.371/.522
v. RHP .174/.242/.316
Jason Kendall
(career)
v. LHP .293/.375/.411
v. RHP .293/.370/.382
(2008)
v. LHP .250/.335/.346
v. RHP .245/.324/.316

Bench Options

Craig Counsell
(career)
v. LHP .251/.333/.322
v. RHP .256/.346/.349
(2008)
v. LHP .190/.333/.238
v. RHP .229/.358/.308
Trot Nixon
(Career)
v. LHP .214/.308/.322
v. RHP .288/.376/.496
(2008) 41 PA
v. LHP .000/.500/.000 (2 PA)
v. RHP .176/.282/.294 (39 PA)
(2007) 354 PA
v. LHP .224/.286/.286
v. RHP .256/.352/.345
Chris Duffy
(Career)
v. LHP .246/.297/.339
v. RHP .276/.338/.369
(2008) Injured only 30 games in minors
(2007) Only played 70 ML games and 4 MiL games May have gotten hurt?
v. LHP .211/.262/.351
v. RHP .261/.329/.359
Tony Gwynn Jr.
(Career)
v. LHP .333/.379/.333 (29 PA)
v. RHP .237/.291/.293 (235 PA)
(2008 ML)
v. LHP 1.000/1.000/2.000 (3 PA)
v. RHP .150/.222/.175 (46 PA)
(Can't find 2008 MiL splits so here's 2007 ML)
v. LHP .316/.350/.316 (20 PA)
v. RHP .250/.322/.317 (115 PA)
Mike Rivera
(Career)
v. LHP .223/.284/.340
v. RHP .256/.303/.409
(2008)
v. LHP .176/.333/.235 (21 PA)
v. RHP .356/.396/.511 (48 PA)
Casey McGehee
(Career) (25 PA all in 2008)
v. LHP .125/.125/.188
v. RHP .188/.176/.188
(Minor League Career Stats)
.279/.332/.409
(Minor League Stats 2008)
.296/.345/.429
Brad Nelson
(Career) (8 PA all in 2008)
v. LHP .333/.429/.667 (7 PA)
v. RHP .000/.000/.000 (1 PA)
(Minor League Career Stats)
.269/.347/.439
(Minor League Stats 2008)
.286/.380/.480

As promised here my lineups

V. LHP V. RHP
2B Rickie Weeks 2B Rickie Weeks
SS JJ Hardy SS JJ Hardy/3B Mike Lamb
1B Prince Fielder LF Ryan Braun
LF Ryan Braun 1B Prince Fielder
3B Bill Hall CF Mike Cameron/SS JJ Hardy
RF Corey Hart 3B M. Lamb/RF B. Nelson/T. Nixon
CF Mike Cameron RF Corey Hart/CF Mike Cameron
C Jason Kendall C Jason Kendall
Pitcher Pitcher

Making a lineup against RHP was pretty tough, but I think it'll work. I kept Kendall as low as I did is because he has a tendency to ground into double plays and would hurt us more being in the 2 hole. I have a couple of guys moved around for different reasons. The first is if Lamb can get back closer to his career norms this year, we can bump JJ down behind Prince to provide better protection for him because JJ puts the ball in play more often than Cameron does. I'd like to see the Brewers give Hart a couple more days off a week this year and I think the best candidate to slide in behind him is Nelson. I know Nelson is primarily a 1B, but he can play both OF positions as well. Definitely not as well as Hart but I think you can make up for it with Cameron in CF. I put Weeks first even though he doesn't get on enough against RH because he's one of the best we've got. I could see leading Kendall off, but he doesn't provide as much as Weeks does once he gets on. You obviously can't put Prince there because it minimizes is RBI opportunities, thus reducing the value of his HR power. It's a tough task that Macha has, but I bet if he's lenient with the order he can take advantage of those in hot streaks to lessen the difficulty in assembling it.

Anonymous said...

hart's plate discipline is atrocious. he doesn't work counts. near the end of last year, he had possibly the worst plate discipline i've ever seen. so he must be our answer at leadoff right? psshhht.

a few facts i learned today:

fact: over the past three seasons, the brewers are 146-130 (.529) when weeks bats leadoff and 102-108 (.468) when someone else hits first.

fact: weeks has a .362 on-base percentage as a leadoff hitter since 2005, the ninth-best percentage from the leadoff spot in the major leagues

fact: the brewers scored 123 runs from the leadoff spot in 2008, fourth best in the major leagues…they also ranked third in the majors with 90 walks from the leadoff spot

fact: brewcity dan's argument sucks

Anonymous said...

Prince should eat meat. Hart is over rated. Braun is about to explode with a season of jaw dropping catches, amazing double pays, and balls hit so far out the park it breaks records.

And in case you were wondering the Reds will be re-building, but in 2 years they will bring brute force. Yeah I said it.

Dan in Milwaukee said...

Fact: anonymous dude reads the jsonline blogs and posts Tom Haudricourts opinions as his own. Fact!

Anonymous said...

fact: those were facts, not haudricort's opinions. facts!

fact: dan doesn't know the difference between facts and opinions. fact.

Dan in Milwaukee said...

You still just lifted something from another blog. I don't think being 9th best at something is that fantastic and I still think weeks would be a better hitter lower in the order. I think we agree on that. Why so angry?
I've also asked this many times but got no answer... Do I know you? Do you post on jsonline? GO BREWERS! How about another argument? Lets go with pitching. I believe our pitchers are underrated and in no way should we persue... (pursue)? any of the over priced losers in free agency. Gamble with youth. Your thoughts?

Anonymous said...

iThose last two anonymous posts do not belong to me (the first 4 are). Although arguing that 9th best out of 30 isn't fantastic is not something I'd be arguing. That means since 2005 21 other teams had worse leadoff hitters. All weeks has to do is put together a full season to be one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. 2nd half stats the last 3 years .263/.378/.451 (2008), .251/.422/.481 (2007), .308/.372/.385 (10 games in 2006 because of injury). 1st half stats the last 3 years .217/.320/.367 (2008), .221/.328/.392 (2007), and .275/.361/.406 (2006). As you can see, Rickie Weeks was close to putting a full season together in 2006 before a WRIST INJURY. Management said the 1st Half of 2007 was a result of discomfort caused by scar tissue buildup in his wrist. I can't tell you why he struggled in the 1st half of 2008, but if I had to guess it'd be because the guys behind him were Gwynn Jr./Kapler/Cameron. Apart from the days he had Kapler behind him he didn't have anyone who hit .275 plus. Maybe pitchers pitched him differently with a guy who was going to make less contact behind him, but when JJ slotted in the 2 hole he picked it up. If we wanted to break the slump in September we never should have moved Rickie out of the leadoff role as he hit .283/.415/.528. That would have definitely helped the rest of the lineup instead of having Cameron hit .176/.257/.253. To the Anonymous who posted after my lineup post, Hart could be a leadoff hitter. To be a good one, though, he'd have to hit .300+ to be successful. I think he can do that as he has a history of hitting around .300, but I don't want him there unless he proves he can consistently hit .300+ at the Major League level. Part of the reason he never got out of his slump in the second half was because of the injury to Kapler. Hart is a good player. He was 2nd or 3rd, forget which, RF in the NL in 2007.

I like our pitching staff. Not because of the youth, but because of the quality. I have one major problem with it and that's the uncertainty in innings pitched. NL average last year was 932 innings from starting rotations. (983 for Brewers) The question is how many is Gallardo going to be able to give without hitting a wall, much like Parra did last year. I've seen projections at him throwing around 180 innings with a mid 3 ERA. Not an elite Ace of a rotation, but a very solid #1. I've seen projections putting Parra at 180 innings pitched with an ERA from 3.6-4.10. If we get a 3.6 out of him we will have a very solid 1-2 punch. I've seen projections that put Bush from 3.8-4.4 in about 185 innings pitched. If Bush is sub-4 we're looking pretty good. Suppan is the albatross of the staff and likely won't be much better than a replacement level pitcher. The wildcard here is McClung. I've seen predictions of 4.0-4.5, although many of those put him as a reliever. If he can get those numbers over say 150-160 innings we are left with about 150 innings to hand to the 6/7/8 starters. The trade for Wright was a good one not only for depth, but 6 years of controlled service for a mid-back of the rotation lefty. (Career 3.56 ERA in the minors)
Looking at the rest of the rotations in the Central we are not light years behind any of the ones that'll compete for the NL Central title.

Cubs
Zambrano- Has been getting progressively worse each year. No longer an a true Ace.
Dempster-Likely to suffer from the obscene workload increase from 2007-2008. I'm not predicting him to go to hell, but I think he'll sit in the mid 3's for an ERA.
Harden-Will not give them 30 starts and looking at his history and recent reports of a muscle tear in his pitching arm he may not get much more than 100 innings
Lilly-A quality innings eater with a 3.8-4.5 ERA. What Suppan was meant to be for the Brewers
Heilman/Marshall/Smardjzia-Who knows what you'll really get, but essentially equal to McClung

Cardinals
Wainwright-Another good top of the rotation starter, but only pitched 132 innings last year.
Carpenter-He's the wildcard of the staff. When he's healthy he's an Ace. He may not hold up for the whole season, though.
Lohse-Has never been much in his career and will more than likely pitch to his second half stats last year than the first
Wellenmeyer-Converted Reliever who had a breakout season last year, although nowhere near Dempster's. I think he'll fall back to mediocrity this year like he's been for a majority of his career.
Pineiro/Garcia/???-Not sure who's going to pitch here and quite frankly it probably won't be better than McClung.
Astros

Oswalt-A true Ace of staff and the only pitcher I worry about from Houston
Rodriguez-Decent year last year, but only pitched 130 odd innings.
Backe-Horrible starter. He had a 6+ ERA in 160+ innings
???-No idea, but probably won't be much more than replacement level starter.
???-No idea, but probably won't be much more than replacement level starter.

Reds
Volquez-Breakout season last year. Wait and see if he falls back like Jered Weaver did in his second full season.
Harang-Has been the durable horse of a #1 for quite a while, but struggled a lot last year.
Arroyo-Has been a quality innings eater much like Lilly has been.
Cueto-started off 2008 extremely well, but he faded just as fast. He's definitely a wildcard for the Reds this year.
Owings/Bailey/Belisle-This group is pretty meh, but if Bailey starts realizing his potential could round out a tough rotation.

Why people put down our staff when those of other teams vying for the NL Central title aren't much better. The Cubs could obviously have a great rotation if Zambrano reverts the trends the pas 3 years, Dempster pitches like he did last year, and Harden miracously stays healthy for a full season. That's counting on a lot of ifs. The Reds are in a similar boat with some young talented pitchers. If those young pitchers can realize some of their talent as well as Harang bouncing back they could be very dangerous. The Astros have no pitching. They're going to have to out hit most everyone on the days Oswalt doesn't pitch. The Cardinals are in a similar boat with us depth wise. If Wainwright and Carpenter can stay healthy all year they have the best 1-2 punch in the division.

My predicitions for the rotation this year are as follows:

Gallardo 15+wins with a 3.00-3.50 ERA in 180+IP
Parra 12+wins with a 3.4-3.9 ERA in 180+IP
Bush 12+wins with a 3.6-4.1 ERA in 200+IP
Suppan 8+wins with a 4.50-5.00 ERA in 180+IP
McClung 10+wins with a 4.00-4.50 ERA in 140+IP
So at least 880 innings from our starting 5 leaving at least 42-103 IP to be filled by Wright/Capuano/DiFelice/Dillard.

Anonymous said...

I read this entire thing....why?

Dan in Milwaukee said...

I like the pitching report. Couldn't agree more.

Anonymous said...

Hey it's been awhile since I posted my last comment on here. If you're interested in seeing my analysis of Rickie Weeks compared to other leadoff hitters in the majors go to this address. http://community.sportsbubbler.com/blogs/between_the_green_pillars/archive/2009/02/27/is-rickie-weeks-a-leadoff-hitter.aspx